Rank Growth by Rate, Not by Count

RestaurantData published its summer expansion analysis on September 19. Per that report, it verified 4,382 net-new U.S. restaurant locations with expected opening dates between June 1 and September 30, and ranked 17 enterprise-scale companies two ways: raw openings, and openings per 100 existing units. The two rankings do not agree, and most development conversations only use the first one.

Our position: the rate column is the one that tells you who will bid on your corner. Per the report, Chick-fil-A led on raw count with 19 openings and sat at 0.55 per 100 units. CAVA opened 8 at 1.68. Potbelly opened 7 at 1.49. 7 Brew Coffee opened 11 at 1.26. Shake Shack opened 4 at 0.93. At the other end the report puts Starbucks at 0.02 openings per 100 units, McDonald's at 0.05, Taco Bell at 0.06 and Dunkin' at 0.07.

A large system's absolute number is a rounding error on its own base

An opening count measures how big a brand already is. A rate measures whether it is in an expansion posture. Those are different questions, and only the second one predicts whether a real estate manager returns a call about a single pad.

A brand near the top of the rate column is running a program that has to find sites this year or miss a number. A brand at 0.05 is replacing and relocating. Both can be healthy. Only one is short of corners.

McDonald's spent this week describing the other side of that

McDonald's announced its NEXT strategy on September 23. Per the company's release, it plans approximately $8.5 billion in total NEXT partnering support through 2036, approximately $5 billion of it through 2030, delivered through "a combination of rent relief and capital support." For 2027 through 2030 the release describes about $3 billion of annual baseline capital expenditures plus $1.5 billion to $2 billion of cumulative capital partnering support.

Nation's Restaurant News reported on September 23 that the plan centers on modernizing existing restaurants — an upskilling effort beginning October 5, the ArchIQ operating system, a digitized supply chain, and voice-activated drive-thru AI testing in 10 U.S. restaurants. Per the company, the work is estimated to produce roughly $100,000 in annual cash flow benefit for the average U.S. restaurant, with an approximately four-year payback for franchisees after partnering.

Read that as a real estate statement rather than an operations one. Billions of dollars of franchisee capital over the next four years has just been given a specific, company-subsidized use, and that use is the box the franchisee already occupies. That is not a weakness in the plan. It is a description of where competition for new dirt is not coming from.

What it means for a Southeast pad

The report names two states directly: "Each of the 17 companies recorded at least 1 Texas opening, and 12 of the 17 recorded at least 1 in Florida." It does not break out Georgia or the Carolinas, and we draw no conclusion about those states from a report that did not measure them.

What the report does describe is the shape of the buyer. Per the analysis, 1,395 of the 4,382 openings came from multi-unit operators, and 1,195 distinct concepts sit behind those 1,395 openings. That is a fragmented pool. It does not run a national site-selection department and it does not meet monthly to approve a region. It signs when one specific corner works.

What we watch for

We rank a prospect list by openings against existing units, not by openings. A brand with 11 openings on a small base is a live buyer. A brand with 19 on a very large one is filling in.

We ask whether a franchisee's capital is already committed. Rent relief and remodel subsidies are real money with a stated payback, and a signed remodel program is a reason a site call goes unanswered.

And we would want to see a second Southeast metro from the rate leaders before treating any of them as a repeat bidder here. One opening in Florida is a market test. Two metros is a program.